{"id":108645,"date":"2020-03-19T17:14:01","date_gmt":"2020-03-19T21:14:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/?p=108645"},"modified":"2020-03-19T17:14:01","modified_gmt":"2020-03-19T21:14:01","slug":"commentary-guyana-future-leader-or-outcast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/commentary-guyana-future-leader-or-outcast\/","title":{"rendered":"COMMENTARY: Guyana – Future Leader Or Outcast?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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(The writer is Ambassador of Antigua and Barbuda to the United States and the Organization of American States.\u00a0 He is also a Senior Fellow at the Institute of Commonwealth Studies at the University of London and at Massey College in the University of Toronto.\u00a0The views expressed are entirely his own)<\/span><\/i><\/p>

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Guyana is in grave danger of being ostracised in the regional, hemispheric and global communities.\u00a0 As I write, the General Elections, which were held on March 2, still have no final count, and certainly not one that international observers have declared as credible, transparent and lawful.<\/span><\/p>\n

I have seen many comments, statements and assertions from some who should know better, and those who seem to have adopted a herd mentality, that international approval is unnecessary and international disapproval, however demonstrated, is both unimportant and incapable of harming the country.\u00a0 Nothing could be further from reality.<\/span><\/p>

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Should the Guyana general elections be declared, and a government established, without the blessing of the international organisations that the Government invited to observe those elections, Guyana could face suspension from the Commonwealth and from the Organisation of American States (OAS) \u2013 two of the most important organisations to which it belongs, for breaches of the Commonwealth 1991 Harare Declaration on the protection and promotion of the fundamental political values of the Commonwealth, and the Inter-American Democratic Charter that guides the OAS. <\/span><\/p>

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Once the machinery of the Commonwealth and the OAS are invoked \u2013 as it certainly will be \u2013 suspension of Guyana from the councils of both organizations will assuredly follow.\u00a0 The European Union will also take separate action that will be directed at suspending normal terms of trade, aid and investment relations.\u00a0\u00a0The latter will have an immediate effect that will be immediately apparent in Guyana.<\/span><\/p>\n

Of great significance is that both the Commonwealth and the OAS Observer missions were led by two former Caribbean Prime Ministers, Owen Arthur of Barbados and Bruce Golding of Jamaica.\u00a0 Therefore, those who look to racism to blame for positions of these organisations that don\u2019t suit them, are hardly able to do so in this case.<\/span><\/p>

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And, those who might say that suspension of Guyana from the Councils of the OAS and the Commonwealth is of no account, it is worth reminding that these two Organizations have been extremely important to Guyana in defence of its sovereignty and territorial integrity in face of claims by Venezuela.\u00a0\u00a0When Guyana does not have a voice in these organisations, it is in no position to argue its case and to secure the support it has received in the past.<\/span><\/p>\n

Note should be taken that, in the OAS, the ostensible representative of Venezuela is Juan Guaid\u00f3\u2019s nominee, and the opposition in Venezuela has been especially virulent in its claim to two-thirds of Guyana.\u00a0 Therefore, in the OAS, Guyana will have left the OAS field clear for the Venezuela opposition to sow its seeds.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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Similarly, if the Guyana elections are condemned by the international community, Guyana\u2019s high moral standing in its case against Venezuela at the International Court of Justice, on the border contention, will be weakened.<\/span><\/p>

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Based on the recommendations of the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group and the OAS Permanent Council, members of the 55 nation Commonwealth and the 34 nation OAS will be strengthened in taking any individual actions against Guyana that they consider appropriate.\u00a0\u00a0 Mike Pompeo, the U.S. Secretary of State, has already said that \u201cindividuals who seek to benefit from electoral fraud and form illegitimate governments\/regimes will be subject to a variety of serious consequences from the United States\u201d.\u00a0 That is usually a first step before the U.S. unleashes sanctions against the operations of state-owned companies and their operations.\u00a0 Guyana would be hurt by actions taken against individual states from the EU, the Commonwealth and the OAS.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sadly, the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) countries \u2013 12 in the Commonwealth and 14 in the OAS \u2013 that would normally defend and fight for the interests of Guyana, as they have consistently done in the past, will be estopped from doing so by the shabby treatment accorded to CARICOM in its attempt to help to resolve the general elections process at the request of both President Granger and Opposition Leader, Bharat Jagdeo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Current CARICOM Chair, Mia Mottley, the Prime Minister of Barbados, led a high-level team to Guyana of four other Prime Ministers that included three of the longest-serving leaders, Dr Ralph Gonsalves of St Vincent and the Grenadines, Dr Keith Mitchell of Grenada, Roosevelt Skerrit of Dominica and Dr Keith Rowley of Trinidad and Tobago, Guyana\u2019s immediate CARICOM neighbour.\u00a0 In good faith, the leaders thought they had brokered an agreement with President David Granger and Opposition leader, Bharat Jagdeo.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Essentially, it was agreed that the tabulation process had been widely viewed as not being transparent or credible, and CARICOM was invited to supervise a recount as an independent body and one that wanted Guyana to come out of the situation, boasting legitimacy of the electoral process.<\/span><\/p>\n

A CARICOM team, dispatched to supervise tabulation of the votes on March 15, was forced to leave the country after three days of patiently waiting in vain.\u00a0\u00a0 Mottley was compelled to conclude that, despite CARICOM\u2019s valiant efforts, \u201cIt is clear that there are forces that do not want to see the votes recounted for whatever reason\u201d. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0She did not end there, she pointedly added: \u201cAny Government which is sworn in without a credible and fully transparent vote count process would lack legitimacy\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

So, there is now the matter of what CARICOM will do.\u00a0 Given all these circumstances, it is unlikely to be business as usual with a government, established on the back of elections that are not deemed credible and transparent by any of the international Observers, including CARICOM.\u00a0\u00a0 Even the continuation of the CARICOM Secretariat in Guyana could come into question.<\/span><\/p>\n

No one in CARICOM wishes this fate for Guyana. At a moment in history when Guyana\u2019s fortunes are set to be transformed by the exploration of oil and gas, all in CARICOM were looking forward to a vibrant Guyana, taking-up the leadership role it played in the Community\u2019s original formation.<\/span><\/p>\n

By the time this commentary is published in some places (it was written on 19 March), measures may have been taken to take the action necessary to tabulate the votes in Guyana through a transparent and credible process \u2013 with CARICOM re-invited to supervise it. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

If that happens, Guyana will enjoy international respect amid its new-found wealth; if it doesn\u2019t, the path ahead will be strewn with difficulties and hardships.<\/span><\/p>\n

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(The writer is Ambassador of Antigua and Barbuda to the United States and the Organization of American States.\u00a0 He is also a Senior Fellow at the Institute of Commonwealth Studies at the University of London and at Massey College in the University of Toronto.\u00a0The views expressed are entirely his own) Guyana is in grave danger […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":23666,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-108645","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\nCOMMENTARY: Guyana - Future Leader Or Outcast? - Antigua News Room<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/commentary-guyana-future-leader-or-outcast\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"COMMENTARY: Guyana - Future Leader Or Outcast?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(The writer is Ambassador of Antigua and Barbuda to the United States and the Organization of American States.\u00a0 He is also a Senior Fellow at the Institute of Commonwealth Studies at the University of London and at Massey College in the University of Toronto.\u00a0The views expressed are entirely his own) Guyana is in grave danger […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/commentary-guyana-future-leader-or-outcast\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Antigua News Room\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/antiguanewsroom\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-03-19T21:14:01+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/mlavawteztbj.i.optimole.com\/w:auto\/h:auto\/q:mauto\/f:best\/https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/SirRon.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1366\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"768\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Editor\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@AntiguaNewsRoom\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@AntiguaNewsRoom\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Editor\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/commentary-guyana-future-leader-or-outcast\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/commentary-guyana-future-leader-or-outcast\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Editor\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/#\/schema\/person\/36cac05ef6398fe56ae3e6317f8535c5\"},\"headline\":\"COMMENTARY: Guyana – Future Leader Or Outcast?\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-03-19T21:14:01+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-03-19T21:14:01+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/commentary-guyana-future-leader-or-outcast\/\"},\"wordCount\":1093,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/commentary-guyana-future-leader-or-outcast\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/mlavawteztbj.i.optimole.com\/w:1366\/h:768\/q:mauto\/f:best\/https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/SirRon.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/commentary-guyana-future-leader-or-outcast\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/commentary-guyana-future-leader-or-outcast\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/commentary-guyana-future-leader-or-outcast\/\",\"name\":\"COMMENTARY: Guyana - Future Leader Or Outcast? 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