{"id":101672,"date":"2020-02-09T12:51:16","date_gmt":"2020-02-09T16:51:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/?p=101672"},"modified":"2020-02-09T12:51:16","modified_gmt":"2020-02-09T16:51:16","slug":"commentary-the-trump-card-in-venezuela-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/commentary-the-trump-card-in-venezuela-crisis\/","title":{"rendered":"COMMENTARY: The Trump card in\u00a0 Venezuela crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"
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By Sir Ronald Sanders<\/b><\/p>

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(The writer is Ambassador of Antigua and Barbuda to the United States and the Organization of American States.\u00a0\u00a0He is also a Senior Fellow at the Institute of Commonwealth Studies at the University of London and at Massey College in the University of Toronto.\u00a0\u00a0The views expressed are entirely his own)<\/i><\/p>\n

When is a failed policy recognised as a failure and is abandoned for a new approach?\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0That was the question that Barack Obama and his administration had to confront after more than 50 years of a policy of trade embargoes, sanctions and, at one point, invasion that failed to dislodge the Castro government in Cuba.\u00a0\u00a0It is a question that the present Donald Trump administration should be considering in relation to Venezuela and the Nicolas Maduro government.<\/p>

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Over the last four years, the U.S. government has imposed an array of sanctions against individuals and state enterprises in Venezuela.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0While the former may have hurt the individuals concerned, the latter has hurt the poorest and most vulnerable, exacerbating the flow of people from the country into neighbouring states.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0But, even the continuous sanctions have not created conditions in Venezuela where the people or the military have risen-up to bring about the regime change being sought by the U.S., Canada and a few countries in South and Central America.<\/p>

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Maduro\u2019s government has remained in place by virtue of several circumstances, including strong support from a significant number of the population; the division among the opposition parties and the unattractiveness of their leaders, despite assertions to the contrary; and the financial backing of Russia and China which continue to buy Venezuelan oil.<\/p>\n

The U.S. government, Canada and a few countries in Europe have recognised Juan Guaid\u00f3 as the President of Venezuela and have supported his efforts to organise protests and demonstrations, although even these have diminished in recent months.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Keeping large crowds on the streets arises either out of deep commitment to a cause or considerable financial support.\u00a0\u00a0Protests and marches don\u2019t pay bills unless the protestors and marchers are compensated.\u00a0\u00a0Money \u2013 and donors \u2013 seem to have dwindled considerably.<\/p>

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This latter policy of support has encouraged Guaid\u00f3 not to seek genuine national solutions in the several brokered attempts at dialogue that have occurred.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0No party to a negotiation, assured of external backing, would make concessions that would not put it in an advantageous position.\u00a0\u00a0Convinced that the U.S., Canada, a few European and Latin American governments would back his hard-line positions, Guaid\u00f3 didn\u2019t bargain, he postured.<\/p>\n

This is not to say that the Maduro government did not also take unyielding positions.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0They clearly did; also encouraged by external forces, especially Russia and China, and by the fact that the majority of countries in the world still recognise it as the government of Venezuela.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0In the global support game, the score is Guaid\u00f3 fifty or so; Maduro well over a hundred.<\/p>

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In all this, there have been no winners, only losers.\u00a0\u00a0And the biggest losers are the people of Venezuela whose quality of life, except for the higher echelons of the society, has dramatically deteriorated.\u00a0\u00a0Other losers are the neighbouring states into which Venezuelan refugees have poured.\u00a0\u00a0Each of them has been impacted by the inward migration.\u00a0\u00a0Costs of dealing with the influx of migrants has been high and has diverted funds that should be used to deliver the goods and services their own people expect.\u00a0\u00a0There will come a time when these same neighbouring countries will have to evaluate the damage to them of increasing and stringent sanctions on Venezuela that escalate migration.\u00a0\u00a0When their own circumstances compel them to do so, they will object to further sanctions and call for a reversal of many of them.<\/p>

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Recognising that sanctions have not produced the desired collapse of the Maduro government and that he has failed to mobilise enough internal dissent, particularly from the military, to topple the Government,\u00a0Guaid\u00f3\u00a0<\/a>has been calling for U.S. military intervention.<\/p>\n

A member of Guaid\u00f3’s group, Iv\u00e1n Simonovis, personally delivered a letter to President Donald Trump, requesting that the United States go “on the offensive”.\u00a0\u00a0In a tweet, Simonovis also declared, \u201cnow we are asking to accelerate the process and cut the oxygen line, to finally end Maduro\u2019s time\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0He has repeatedly stated that the solution for Venezuela is a “military coalition\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0In part, this is why the U.S. and 9 countries from the Lima Group (including Guaid\u00f3\u2019s representative), pushed through a resolution on September 11, 2019 at the Organisation of American States (OAS) to invoke the terms of the Rio Treaty, an anachronistic 1947 compact.<\/p>\n

As I have written before, the objective of the resolution, set out in an accompanying notice, was to \u201cadopt measures\u201d to intervene in Venezuela which, it claimed \u201cpose a threat to peace in the Americas\u201d.<\/p>\n

Guaid\u00f3 was a guest at President Trump\u2019s \u2018State of the Union\u2019 address on 4 February, and he was received by the President at the White House for a half-hour meeting.\u00a0\u00a0After the meeting, Guaid\u00f3 reported that \u201cconcrete measures\u201d against Maduro would be announced in the coming days.<\/p>\n

Much as Guaid\u00f3 might want it, President Trump\u2019s \u201cmeasures\u201d are most unlikely to include a military intervention in Venezuela.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0This President has shown a marked reluctance to commit the lives of American soldiers and the resources of the U.S. Treasury to fighting someone else\u2019s war, particularly as not only would it put the U.S. in an unnecessary confrontation with Russia and China, there would not be much benefit to come from it for America.\u00a0\u00a0As President Trump pointed out just the day before he received Guaid\u00f3, the U.S. is entirely self-sufficient in oil and gas, and whatever top-up it needs it can get quicker and cheaper from Canada.<\/p>\n

There is clearly a stand-off now in the Venezuelan situation.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0It cries out for a fresh approach.\u00a0\u00a0President Trump might himself be the trump card in the resolution of this situation, if he decides to use his personal authority and bargaining skills for a direct discussion with Nicolas Maduro, centred on the welfare of the Venezuelan people.<\/p>\n

Responses and previous commentaries:\u00a0www.sirronaldsanders.com<\/a><\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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By Sir Ronald Sanders (The writer is Ambassador of Antigua and Barbuda to the United States and the Organization of American States.\u00a0\u00a0He is also a Senior Fellow at the Institute of Commonwealth Studies at the University of London and at Massey College in the University of Toronto.\u00a0\u00a0The views expressed are entirely his own) When is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":61361,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-101672","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\nCOMMENTARY: The Trump card in\u00a0 Venezuela crisis - Antigua News Room<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/commentary-the-trump-card-in-venezuela-crisis\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"COMMENTARY: The Trump card in\u00a0 Venezuela crisis\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Sir Ronald Sanders (The writer is Ambassador of Antigua and Barbuda to the United States and the Organization of American States.\u00a0\u00a0He is also a Senior Fellow at the Institute of Commonwealth Studies at the University of London and at Massey College in the University of Toronto.\u00a0\u00a0The views expressed are entirely his own) When is […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/commentary-the-trump-card-in-venezuela-crisis\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Antigua News Room\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/antiguanewsroom\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-02-09T16:51:16+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/mlavawteztbj.i.optimole.com\/w:auto\/h:auto\/q:mauto\/f:best\/https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/Sir.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1933\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1289\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Editor\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@AntiguaNewsRoom\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@AntiguaNewsRoom\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Editor\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/commentary-the-trump-card-in-venezuela-crisis\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/commentary-the-trump-card-in-venezuela-crisis\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Editor\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/#\/schema\/person\/36cac05ef6398fe56ae3e6317f8535c5\"},\"headline\":\"COMMENTARY: The Trump card in\u00a0 Venezuela crisis\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-02-09T16:51:16+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-02-09T16:51:16+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/commentary-the-trump-card-in-venezuela-crisis\/\"},\"wordCount\":1037,\"commentCount\":4,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/commentary-the-trump-card-in-venezuela-crisis\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/mlavawteztbj.i.optimole.com\/w:1619\/h:1080\/q:mauto\/f:best\/https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/Sir.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/commentary-the-trump-card-in-venezuela-crisis\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/commentary-the-trump-card-in-venezuela-crisis\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/commentary-the-trump-card-in-venezuela-crisis\/\",\"name\":\"COMMENTARY: The Trump card in\u00a0 Venezuela crisis - 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