Released By Colorado State University
(KIAH) — The forecasting team at Colorado State University (CSU) has released its first outlook for the upcoming 2025 Atlantic Hurricane season, and they predict above-normal activity.
Because of current La Niña conditions in the Pacific, which may soon transition to a neutral ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation), and a warmer than normal Atlantic basin, CSU forecasters anticipate an environment more conducive to hurricane formation and intensification. The chance for a major hurricane to make landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean is above-average, according to the team.
The good news is that while they predict the upcoming hurricane season will see more named storms than an average year, they don’t think there will be as many as in 2024. They predict 17 named storms, which is fewer than last year’s hurricane season which saw 18, but above the average by about two; they predict that nine will become hurricanes, which is two fewer than occurred in 2024 but above normal by almost two; and they predict four will become major hurricanes, one less than in 2024, but above the average of 3.2.
| Forecast Parameters | CSU Forecast for 2025* | Average for 1991-2020 |
|---|---|---|
| Named Storms | 17 | 14.4 |
| Named Storm Days | 85 | 69.4 |
| Hurricanes | 9 | 7.2 |
| Hurricane Days | 35 | 27.0 |
| Major Hurricanes | 4 | 3.2 |
| Major Hurricane Days | 9 | 7.4 |
| Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)+ | 155 | 123 |
| ACE West of 60 degrees longitude | 93 | 73 |
This is CSU’s 42nd year releasing a forecast for the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Their forecasts began with the late Professor Emeritus Bill Gray, who started releasing the report in 1984. originated the seasonal forecasts at CSU and launched the report in 1984. Since his passing in 2016, the forecasts have been led by Phil Klotzbach, Professor Michael Bell and Research Scientist Levi Silvers. The CSU-RAMS Team is part of the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU and is a highly regarded atmospheric science program.
You can follow their predictions as they release their forecasts through the hurricane season, which begins June 1 every year and runs through November.
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